Republican Rick Jackson rallies supporters in Roswell, Georgia, last week as he campaigned for Georgia governor. This year, voters in 36 states will elect governors with at least a dozen races characterized by analysts as competitive. (Photo by Ross Williams/Georgia Recorder)
While much of the national attention on today’s midterm elections has focused on control of Congress, voters across the country will also choose which party controls the levers of state power.
Across the states, more than 6,000 legislative seats are up for grabs, leaving the partisan control of numerous chambers hanging in the balance.
And voters will choose governors in 36 states. Only a dozen of those races are considered competitive by independent analysts, but Democrats have a shot at winning control of a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years.
Midterm elections generally favor the party that doesn’t control the White House. Voters’ growing disapproval of President Donald Trump and frustration over high prices has given Democrats a shot at not only flipping control of Congress but also making major gains in state governments, where Republicans have held a majority of governors and legislative chambers since 2010.
“For the most part the Republicans are kind of playing defense more than offense,” Katy Owens Hubler, director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures, told Stateline earlier this election cycle.
Currently, Republicans boast a 26-24 gubernatorial advantage over Democrats. The math could change depending on the outcome of today’s elections, particularly as Democrats are competing closely in some reliably conservative states.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which ranks the competitiveness of state and national races, identified a dozen races for governor considered competitive this cycle. Those include: Alaska, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Texas and Wisconsin.
In recent weeks, Cook moved its ratings of the Florida and Texas governor races from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. That means the GOP candidates are still favored in those states, but “given the grim political environment for the GOP,” the analysts could not rule out an upset in one or both states.
Democrats’ improving prospects are evidence of the broader political challenges facing Republicans across the country, said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.
“It’s a rebuke of the Trump model, and especially the Republican Trump model,” he said. “But it’s also something that isn’t uncommon for midterms.”
In states such as Alaska, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas, a Democratic governor could reinvigorate the left, which has struggled to compete with the GOP’s grip on state power, providing a new check on Republican lawmakers.
Experts say Democratic control of more governor’s offices could mean more bipartisan compromise — or gridlock — in state capitols, depending on which party controls the legislature. In Nevada, a Democratic governor could initiate a new era of policymaking: Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has vetoed more than 160 bills approved by the Democratic-controlled legislature during his term.
Democrats are also aiming to flip hundreds of state legislative seats this cycle. Republicans currently boast control of 28 state legislatures and Democrats control 18, while three states have divided control of chambers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Since President Donald Trump’s second term began, Democrats have flipped a dozen seats in special elections in Arkansas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Texas, according to tracking by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats at the state level. They also flipped another 18 seats in last year’s general elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
Heather Williams, president of that organization, has repeatedly characterized 2026 as “a once-in-a-generation opportunity” to transform state legislative power for the party.
The outcome of gubernatorial and legislative races will undoubtedly affect local policymaking in upcoming legislative sessions. But both parties have identified control of congressional redistricting as another prize up for grabs this cycle.
Set off by a White House push to give Republicans more seats in the U.S. House, 10 states have completed middecade redistricting — a phenomenon unseen since the 1800s.
“We know Democrats and their national allies will continue to pour millions into state legislative races because they understand what’s at stake: the legislators elected in 2026 will shape redistricting and the balance of power for years to come,” Republican State Leadership Committee President Edith Jorge-Tuñón, said in a July statement to Stateline.
Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org.
This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Louisiana Illuminator, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
